Moodys on global liqudity and low spreads
Moodys Pierre Cailleteau published a research note which looks at factors behind very low credit risk spreads. Analysis decomposes factors into cyclical and structural and looks at global liqudity. Caballero asset shortages hypothesis is part of the analysis, and there is an important observation that central banks as asset managers have asset preferences skewed towards fixed income assets. This together has important implications for credit spreads. Moodys warns that unfolding global imbalances will harm investors only when central banks will let inflation get out of control. As a member of global central bankers’ family I rule out such a possibility. Central bankers are important stakeholders of the Great Moderation era and their commitment to price stability will continue to serve global economy as an important anchor replacing gold standard and providing framework for sustainable long-term growth.