Paul Krugman wrote an article (courtesy of Mark Thoma blog) as of March 2008 looking back one year and analyzing roots of meltdown that started one year earlier. Nouriel Roubini presents evidence in his blog that hard landing recession in US lies ahead.

Few years ago, wearing commercial bank chief economist hat I did a trick similar to Paul Krugman’s. I spoke during the commercial banks congress and I pretended that it was five years later and my speech was titled why the crisis had happened and had it been possible to avoid it? I received excellent feedback, people did like the speech, it got some publicity. But guess what? I was wrong. There was economic slowdown, but crisis never happended.